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Just two days before the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – going beyond who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in the city, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win while missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

It was necessary since they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the tally every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but came two big batches of ballots added after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, it was possible where yesterday turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However the winner added 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, renters and people squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president last year went for Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured we might go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to get over 50%. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still around 200K ballots left to report at that time. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I wish he achieves it because then no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Including Tottenville in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump area. That truly surprised me. The independent kept very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many conservatives on the island with a strong turnout. I think occurred significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened before Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

I think there was some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported the independent. So there was a little resistance. But overall, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on whether the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from progressives come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that each urban center in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – because they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities exist.