A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
