‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly a significant distance away are now being felt in India's kitchens.

As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy deliveries through the vital shipping lane, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to reduce offerings, reduce operating times and in some cases close completely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing crowds outside LPG distributors across Indian cities and towns as anxieties over fuel supplies grow. Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the most severe shortage is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a representative of the a major restaurant body.

Most restaurants run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have closed - some in Delhi, many in the south. People are turning to traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep food preparation going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, local news say up to a significant portion of hospitality businesses are already operating at reduced capacity as commercial LPG supplies dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some eateries say their gas stocks have shrunk with minimal reserves. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are fluctuating as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers report a spike in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Official Position

Yet, the government insists there is no shortage.

India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and officials say stocks are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.

Roughly 60% of India's LPG is imported, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the war.

The relevant department says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a significant margin. Business-grade fuel is being prioritised for vital industries such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".

"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been triggered by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a ministry representative.

Growing Panic

Now the anxiety is extending beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of scooters outside a petrol pump. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.

According to data from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be exaggerated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its oil. Around half of its crude oil imports - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the deficit could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, additional Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The key weakness is cooking gas, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - most of it through Hormuz.

Refineries can modify output to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only raise domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be somewhat alleviated through diversification. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. Kitchen fuel stocks is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.

"Suppliers are misusing the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold at a premium."

For now, India's oil supplies may be buffered by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next gas canister.